Good News for Seattle's Renters

Good News for Seattle's Renters

The consensus is still out on the Seattle real estate market. Sure, the economy is hurting. The market is saturated. Foreclosures occur less frequently than they did last year, but there are still plenty to report. Some experts thought these circumstances would increase demand for apartments. It did, for a time.

Rent prices soared and vacancies dipped to low levels in response to that demand. For many of the city's renters, the hike felt like a rebuke. Many people rent apartments, after all. And in a metropolis like Seattle, when reliable renters are forced to pay more or be switched out for someone who will pay more, emotions tend to run high.

But now a different trend is emerging. Vacancies are up. Apartment prices have flat-lined. More people are staying put. This is in response to the real estate market. Home prices are falling. People are scooping up new properties or waiting to sell until their property value can go up. This is good news for Seattle's renters.

The Seattle Post Intelligencer recently ran article addressing the issue.

The spike in local foreclosures isn't much of a silver lining, they said. "Some people tell us they think the foreclosures in single-family homes and condominiums will increase apartment demand. But we believe this increased demand will be completely offset by lower home prices making the cost of home ownership more competitive with rentals again. This was already starting to happen this fall."

All of this, of course, depends on trends that emerge this spring. If the real estate home market grows stagnant once again, Seattle residents could face another spike in apartment demand. If low-priced homes sell quickly, rental property owners may well increase rent to offset the demand loss. But if things remain as they are now, Seattle may find a healthy balance that makes renting or owning a piece of property an attractive prospect, depending on personal circumstances.

"Our Apartment Market Is Never In Equilibrium -- It Just Passes Through It From Time To Time."

That's how Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors leads off their December issue of "The Apartment Advisor."

What they mean is that it looks like the market is quickly passing from rising rents and falling vacancies to the opposite.

Dupre + Scott forecast in September that market vacancy (not counting new construction in lease-up) would rise from 4.8 percent this fall to nearly 6 percent by early 2010. They now say it will peak at 7.3 percent in June 2010 but won't get back into balance until early 2012.

With time to spare, Seattle has work to do. The good news is that it ranks as one of the country's most economically diverse and innovative urban centers. Now is a smart time to rent, especially if you are waiting to see what the home market does. The numbers are in a renter's favor, and the increased vacancy rate means more attractive spaces from which to choose.